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Nos liseuses Vivlio rencontrent actuellement des problèmes de synchronisation. Nous faisons tout notre possible pour résoudre ce problème le plus rapidement possible. Toutes nos excuses pour la gêne occasionnée !
- Retrait gratuit dans votre magasin Club
- 7.000.0000 titres dans notre catalogue
- Payer en toute sécurité
- Toujours un magasin près de chez vous
10,99 €
+ 10 points
Format
Description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future – everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Spécifications
Parties prenantes
- Auteur(s) :
- Editeur:
Contenu
- Langue:
- Anglais
Caractéristiques
- EAN:
- 9780753544525
- Date de parution :
- 30-08-12
- Format:
- Ebook
- Protection digitale:
- Adobe DRM
- Format numérique:
- ePub
